The anticipated year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023, according to the Cleveland Federal Reserve, is 3.22%.
Monetary policy has just started to become really tight with higher positive real interest rates. This will have a negative impact on GDP growth. Delinquency and default rates (both corporate and personal) may rise, especially as many Americans have to start paying back their student loans soon again and the debt ceiling deal limits fiscal spending. Furthermore, regional bank crisis could escalate if few banks will report larger than expected deposit losses leading to more credit tightening and less trust in banks.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland